The Arizona real estate market is kicking off June 2025 with mixed signals. Here’s the quick hit: supply is stabilizing, but demand is dragging.

🔍 By the Numbers – June 1, 2025 vs. June 1, 2024

Active Listings (excluding UCB/CCBS):
26,580 (↑ 47% YoY) – up slightly from May, but nothing like earlier in the year.
Pending Listings:
4,595 (↓ 8.4% YoY, ↓ 14% MoM) – a steep monthly drop, and that’s not ideal.
Monthly Sales:
7,095 (↓ 6.6% YoY) – BUT there were fewer workdays this May, so that dip isn’t as bad as it looks.
Price Per Sq Ft:
$300.14 (↑ 0.8% YoY) – mostly due to more high-end closings in May.
Median Sales Price:
$455,000 (↑ 1.1% YoY, ↑ 2.2% MoM) – stronger than expected, but probably temporary.

📉 The Downside: Demand Took a Hit

Pending and under-contract listings are down double digits from just a month ago. That’s a red flag, especially since we weren’t exactly thriving in May to begin with. Buyers are still hesitant, and high mortgage rates (hovering around 7%) aren’t helping.

💡 The Upside: Fewer New Listings

Ironically, what’s helping sellers is what’s not happening—a flood of new listings. Active inventory has stopped its runaway growth for now. That might soften the blow of lower demand if the trend continues.

🏗️ Builders Offering 4.99% Mortgage Buydowns

Buyers wanting rates below 6% are turning to new builds. Builders are stepping in with aggressive incentives—especially to hit Q2 targets. A 4.99% rate buydown is now common, but you might be able to negotiate even more.

📊 Cromford Market Index: 73 = Weak Seller Market

A CMI of 73 is low—not crash-level, but still deep in buyer territory. The last time we saw numbers this soft, it was during the post-2006 downturn.

💰 Luxury Market Playing Its Own Game

Sales over $3M surged in May, following the stock market’s lead. These high-end deals are fewer in number but still big in dollar volume. Demand here remains strong, even while the broader market cools.

💬 Bottom Line

Buyers still have the upper hand—for now.
Sellers are hoping new listing flows stay low.
June will be all about whether supply stays tight or starts ticking back up.

Summarized from The Cromford Report Early June Market Report…

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